New research reveals strong and growing demand for air travel in Southland is not being fully met, highlighting a clear opportunity to improve connectivity and unlock regional growth.
The research, based on surveys of more than 2,300 travellers and businesses, shows Southlanders are frequent travellers, averaging 5.7 personal trips and 12.4 work trips per year, with demand remaining consistent year-on-year.
Importantly, it also reveals a significant level of unmet demand, with up to 30% of potential trips not taken due to limited availability, pricing and scheduling, equating to more than 100,000 missed flights in 2025. This points to substantial latent demand that could be realised with improved services.
Great South Chief Executive Chami Abeysinghe said the findings provide a clear picture of a region with strong underlying demand and significant opportunity for growth.
“This research confirms that Southland has a resilient and growing travel market. Demand is strong across both business and personal travel and the level of unmet demand shows there is real opportunity to better align services with the needs of our region,” Mrs Abeysinghe said.
The reinstatement of a direct Invercargill-Wellington service has emerged as the highest priority for travellers. Since its removal, travel to the capital has declined, with travellers often facing longer journey times and higher costs when connecting through other centres.
“A well-timed direct connection to Wellington would help unlock that unmet demand, improving productivity, strengthening business connections and making travel more accessible for our communities,” Mrs Abeysinghe said.
The research comes at a time of strong regional performance, with Southland recording the highest GDP growth in New Zealand and billions of dollars of investment underway across key sectors including energy, aquaculture and manufacturing. Reliable air connectivity plays a critical role in supporting this growth, enabling the movement of people, skills, and time-sensitive goods.
While passenger numbers through Invercargill declined in 2025, the findings indicate this reflects reduced capacity rather than reduced demand.
“As a region, we are well positioned for continued growth. Ensuring we have the right air services in place will help unlock that potential and support both businesses and communities to thrive,” Mrs Abeysinghe said.
Travellers also expressed strong support for improvements to existing services. Direct flights to Auckland are highly valued and there is strong interest in further optimising flight timing to better support day trips and business travel, another opportunity to better meet existing demand.
Importantly, the research highlights clear commercial potential, with many travellers indicating a willingness to pay more for direct and well-timed services, reinforcing the viability of service improvements.
Mrs Abeysinghe said the findings provide a strong foundation for constructive conversations with airline partners.
“This is a positive story about Southland. We have a growing economy, strong travel demand, and clear evidence of unmet demand that could be unlocked. We also recognise the wider challenges currently facing the aviation sector globally. We look forward to continuing constructive conversations with airline partners and stakeholders to explore opportunities that deliver long term benefit for the region.”
This research was conducted prior to the Middle Eastern conflict, at which point demand was expected to continue growing, with a significant proportion of travellers anticipating increased travel in 2026.
Key Highlights from Southland Air Travel Research:
- Southlanders are frequent travellers, averaging 5.7 personal trips (11.3 flights) and 12.4 work trips (24.8 flights) per year.
- Significant unmet demand, with 27 - 30% of potential trips not taken in 2025, equivalent to around 100,000 missed flights.
- On average, individuals missed 2.1 personal trips and 6.8 work trips per year due to limited availability, timing, or pricing.
- 77% of business travellers experienced missed or cancelled trips.
- Direct Wellington flights ranked as the number one priority, with their removal contributing to a 28% decline in travel to the capital.
- Indirect travel has driven fare increases of more than 36% and increased travel times and complexity.
- Invercargill Airport saw 25,000 fewer passengers and 21,000 fewer seats in 2025, driven by capacity reductions rather than falling demand.
- Up to 44% of passenger decline linked to loss of Wellington services.
- Strong future growth expected, with 35% of personal travellers and 51% of business travellers planning to travel more in 2026.
- High willingness to pay for improvements:
- 71% of personal travellers and 76% of business travellers would pay more for direct Wellington flights
- Up to 87% of business travellers would pay more for better-timed Auckland services
- Direct Auckland flights already deliver value, with around 60% of travellers reporting positive impacts
- 70 - 80% of Southlanders using Queenstown or Dunedin airports live within 30 minutes of Invercargill Airport, highlighting passenger leakage due to limited services
